"It's an incredible, incredible hurricane," said John Morales, a meteorologist and hurricane specialist, during an NBC broadcast. In the next sentence, while explaining how quickly Hurricane Milton gained strength, his voice broke. "I'm sorry. It's just terrifying," he added after a moment.
It took less than 12 hours for Milton to strengthen from category 1 to the highest category 5. On Tuesday, the hurricane's center is passing by the Yucatán Peninsula in Mexico. Strong winds and heavy rain threaten places like Mérida, the state capital with 1.2 million residents. On Wednesday, it will strike Florida, and the hurricane's main force is expected to focus on the Tampa Bay metropolitan area, where over 3 million people live.
American meteorologists, warning of the storm, are shocked by its scale and how quickly it developed. John Morales mentioned that the maximum sustained wind speed is 257 km/h. Forecasts indicate that the hurricane will weaken slightly and become a category 3 storm by the time it hits Florida. However, experts emphasize that even with slightly lower wind speeds, the threat will remain enormous—primarily due to storm surge. This is a flood from the sea when the storm's force pushes water onto the land. In the Tampa Bay area, where much of the infrastructure is just above sea level, the surge could exceed 3 meters.
Another meteorologist from Florida, Noah Bergren, described the scale of the storm as "astronomical." "I am at a loss for words to describe the meteorological intensity of this storm," he wrote, adding, "This hurricane is approaching the mathematical limit of what Earth's atmosphere can produce over ocean waters."
A Climate-Driven Force
Morales pointed out that the hurricane rapidly gained strength over the Gulf of Mexico, where the waters are at record-high temperatures. This high temperature is the "fuel" for hurricanes. "You all know what’s behind this: climate change," the specialist emphasized.
An analysis by Climate Central found that without climate change, such high water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico would be extremely unlikely, practically impossible. Climate change means there is more heat in the atmosphere and oceans—thus more energy. This energy translates into the strength and intensity of hurricanes. Previous studies have not shown that the number of such storms is increasing, but those that do occur are increasingly powerful or very powerful.
Climate change not only increases the wind strength of hurricanes but also poses additional threats. Higher atmospheric temperatures mean more water vapor can be held in the air, and warmer seas lead to increased evaporation. This results in heavier rains. Rising sea levels also mean that storm surges associated with hurricanes are more dangerous.
The infrastructure in places like Yucatán or Florida, built over the last century, was designed to withstand stable climate conditions—not the destabilized conditions we face today. Scientists emphasize that the effects of global warming will become increasingly severe as long as we continue to release greenhouse gases (primarily from burning oil, gas, and coal) into the atmosphere.
Florida Prepares for the Storm
Evacuation orders in Florida have affected as many as six million people. Recent photos and videos show congested highways and long lines at stores where people are stocking up on supplies. Flash floods caused by heavy rain are possible around the eye of the cyclone.
The situation is made more difficult by the fact that this will be the second hurricane to hit Florida within two weeks. On September 25-26, Hurricane Helene passed slightly farther north. Although its center was farther north than Milton's, the effects in the Tampa area were severe. Thousands of people lost power, and the storm surge exceeded two meters.
In total, 25 people died in Florida as a result of Hurricane Helene, and the damage is estimated at at least 21 billion dollars.
