It was a grotesque speech. Netanyahu assumed the role of the benevolent father, reminiscing about Lebanon's golden age and gently explaining that the Lebanese are suffering not because of Israel, but because of Iran and Hezbollah. (He didn’t mention Israel’s role in Hezbollah's formation, but don’t worry, we'll address that later in this article.) He affectionately urged Lebanese families, who are currently dying under Israeli bombs, to build a better future for their children. He warned that if civilians don’t change their ways, they will face the same suffering as in Gaza. It sounded as if the tragedy in Gaza was an act of divine punishment, rather than the result of Israeli military actions. You could write a dissertation based on this three-minute speech, but we will focus on one important closing line:
Free your country from Hezbollah so that this war can end
- Netanyahu said to the Lebanese. (Or theoretically to the Lebanese, but practically to the West: the speech was in English, and there weren’t even Arabic subtitles in the video).
Context: What is happening in Lebanon?
- There has been an exchange of fire across the border for over a year. On October 8, 2023, Hezbollah fired rockets toward Israel and declared that they were doing so in solidarity with Gaza. Israel responded in kind. By the end of June, over seven thousand attacks had been exchanged (the vast majority being Israeli). According to UN data, by July, more than 90,000 Lebanese and 60,000 Israelis had to leave their homes in the border area. In Lebanon, 466 people have died, while in Israel, 33 have been killed.
- In September, the conflict escalated. First, Israel officially set a new military goal: to enable its citizens to return to their homes in the north of the country near the Lebanese border. Then, it dramatically increased the intensity of air raids on Lebanon and launched a ground invasion. While Israeli ground forces advanced only a few hundred meters in a week, the scale of the air attacks has been overwhelming. As Commander Graham Scarbro wrote in an analysis for the U.S. Naval Institute: Israel dropped 80 massive "bunker buster" bombs on a densely populated district of Beirut in a single day—more than the U.S. used during its entire invasion of Iraq.
- What does this mean for civilians? A tragedy. Entire villages are being destroyed, and residential neighborhoods in cities are being reduced to rubble. According to the Lebanese government, more than 2,100 people have already been killed in Israeli airstrikes, and over 1.2 million have been forced to flee their homes—more than one-fifth of the country’s population.
Regarding the fight against Hezbollah, Israel has already claimed its first successes. Netanyahu announced that they had killed the leader of the organization, Hassan Nasrallah (in an attack in Beirut), his successor, the next successor, and several commanders. This is indeed a significant blow to Hezbollah, but it doesn’t necessarily mean chaos within the group. Hezbollah has a decentralized structure and is fully capable of continuing the fight. In the previous round of the conflict, in 2006, Israel also quickly declared that they had destroyed most of Hezbollah's missile launchers, that there were successes, that things were going well. But in the end, Hezbollah's fighters completely surprised Israel with their capabilities. A ceasefire was reached after a month. Israel recovered its two kidnapped soldiers (the main reason for the conflict), but Hezbollah had proven that it could withstand the Israeli army despite its numerical and technological superiority.
Now we come to Netanyahu's appeal for the Lebanese to free their country from Hezbollah.
Not all Lebanese support Hezbollah. Lebanon is a country with internal diversity, and its population is far from unanimous on this issue. As last year’s survey by The Washington Institute (a pro-Israeli think tank) shows: Hezbollah does indeed enjoy strong support from the Shia community. But the Sunni community has a much more negative opinion of the group, and more than half of Christians view Hezbollah "very negatively." (For context: Christians make up over one-third of Lebanon's population). Not everyone approves of Hezbollah’s stockpiling of weapons, nor do all Lebanese appreciate its close ties with Iran. It’s also worth noting that Hezbollah has committed morally reprehensible acts throughout its decades-long history. In Syria, the group supported Bashar al-Assad's fight against the opposition, with its fighters killing Syrian civilians. But one thing is clear: Hezbollah knows how to fight Israel. That’s why it was created.
In 1982, there was another Israeli-Lebanese war. It was a brutal and bloody one. Those interested can read more about the Sabra and Shatila massacre, which was so horrific that a few months later, Israeli Defense Minister Ariel Sharon was forced to resign because he had allowed it to happen. Israel first laid siege to Beirut, then moved on to occupy the south of the country. It was during this period, as a resistance movement against the occupier, that Hezbollah was born. For 20 years, the group fought against Israeli forces, and eventually, it succeeded in pushing them out of most of the occupied territories. Since then, Hezbollah has grown stronger, reorganized, dug tunnels, built bunkers, and secured supply chains. Today, it’s a strong and well-armed organization. And what is Netanyahu appealing for today? For the Lebanese, who are being bombarded by Israeli missiles, to take up the fight against the only force that has repeatedly proven capable of repelling Israel.
If the goal is to destroy Hezbollah, Israel's invasion could last indefinitely.
Since the prime minister himself brought up the suffering in Gaza, let’s talk about Gaza for a moment. One of Israel’s main goals, according to Netanyahu’s government, is to dismantle Hamas. Hamas is a much weaker organization than Hezbollah. The Gaza Strip is not, like Lebanon, a sovereign state, and it occupies a much smaller area. A year has passed since Israel’s bloody invasion, Gaza is in ruins, and according to doctors, practically all its residents are either wounded, sick, or both. Yet Hamas is still able to attack Israel. On Monday, October 7, the group’s military wing launched a barrage of rockets at Tel Aviv. As retired General Yitzhak Brik recently wrote in Haaretz: while the Israeli army is struggling, Hamas has no trouble recruiting new fighters. Eighteen-year-olds are eager to join. And in June of this year, Israeli military spokesman Daniel Hagari said:
The idea that Hamas can be destroyed, or that it can be made to disappear, is deceiving the public. Hamas is an idea. Hamas is a political party. Its roots lie in the hearts of the people. Anyone who thinks we can eliminate Hamas is mistaken.
If Netanyahu conditions Israel's withdrawal from Lebanon on the disappearance of Hezbollah, it sounds like a declaration of "we’ll withdraw whenever, or maybe never". This creates a pretext for rejecting any ceasefire conditions, regardless of which country might step in to mediate the negotiations. (Again, similar to the situation in Gaza—talks about a deal with Hamas, proposed by the very pro-Israeli Joe Biden, have been ongoing since May). With such goals and demands, the war could go on indefinitely. Because anything short of complete capitulation will not be enough for Israel.
