The article was written by Mikołaj Fidziński, a journalist at Gazeta.pl.
A study that, in my opinion, unfairly went unnoticed. There's a lot of talk about a "golden age," catching up with Japan or the UK in terms of GDP per capita in extrapolated charts, yet: "Poles aged 18-35 are most afraid of lacking money
- writes Krzysztof Mamiński on the X platform, addressing demographic topics, among others. He refers to the UCE RESEARCH and RISIFY.pl report titled "What Are Young Poles Afraid Of?". It is based on a national survey conducted with a sample of over eight hundred Poles aged 18-35.
The study shows that currently, only 1.5% of 18-35-year-olds have no fears. Meanwhile, financial factors dominate the list. Nearly half (47.4%) are afraid of lacking money. This fear is more common among people from smaller towns and those with lower incomes, but it is also present among others.
Next on the list of young people’s fears is the rising cost of living (27%), losing a job or income opportunities (24%), increasing prices in stores, and high taxes (around 24%). Fears such as fraud, the death of a loved one, or immigrants are less prominent among respondents.
All these concerns reflect the difficult economic situation faced by young people. They point to financial instability and job uncertainty that they have to deal with. Young people are often just starting their careers, which means lower salaries and fewer opportunities to save. (...) It's also clear that young people increasingly feel stressed about finances, which can influence their life decisions, including relationships and divorces.
commented Patryk Rzepka, a psychologist and one of the co-authors of the report from the RISIFY.pl therapy platform.
This also impacts demographics
And speaking of "relationships", this naturally leads to demographics, which Krzysztof Mamiński highlighted in his X thread.
The 18-35 age group accounted for nearly 83% of births last year. (...). It’s worth analyzing the situation of young people, especially in recent years. Are they bearing a disproportionately large cost of our "golden age" (such as the ever-increasing housing/rental prices and living costs)? What is the current "entry point" into adult life (i.e., the minimum needed to function somewhat normally as a young married couple thinking about having a child or already having one)? And does the 'reaping the benefits' phase (i.e., when these fears subside) come too late (at the end of reproductive age)?
- writes Mamiński. Of course, it’s worth noting that the "golden age" in the Polish economy, understood as the rapid pace of catching up with the West in terms of economic size, average incomes, etc., is a fact. However, it’s also true that many of young Poles' worries (whose reference points are no longer the times of the PRL but much more recent) have not been adequately addressed.
There’s no denying that financial stability is one of the most significant factors influencing the decision to have a child (and in Polish conditions, even more so: the decision to get married, and then to have a child).
In Poland, we already struggle at the stage of "meeting" between young women and men. Women tend to live in large cities and surrounding areas, while men often live in smaller towns and rural areas. While roughly half of women aged 25-34 have higher education, only about 30% of men in the same age group do. The worlds of men and women are increasingly diverging. Łakomy pointed to statistics showing that about 40% of young adults aged 20-39 are not in a cohabiting relationship. However, once a woman and man form a couple and want to start a family or have a child, financial and housing issues start to take center stage. For example, we have one of the highest rates of temporary employment among young adults in Europe.
In Poland, compared to older age groups, young people under 30 are significantly more likely to have temporary employment. As noted in the "Deferred Adulthood" report by the Polish Economic Institute, in 2022, 35% of people aged 15-29 in Poland worked on a temporary contract or were self-employed. Although there has been some improvement since 2015, the rate is still much higher than for all working people (15.5% in 2022).
The same report also highlighted the relatively low wages at the start of a career. Data shows that the rise in young people’s wages over the past several years has more or less kept pace with rising real estate prices, meaning housing affordability hasn’t improved.
Stable employment and (preferably owned) housing are the foundations of financial stability, without which it’s hard to decide to have a child. Mamiński and others wonder whether the "entry point" into adult life is coming too late in Poland.
We see a phenomenon of delayed births in Poland - each year, Polish women, on average, are having children later. This is often explained by the fact that a higher percentage of people are completing their studies and want to "enjoy life" first, but this is not a sufficient explanation. When you ask people when they think would be a good time to have a child, their answers are several years earlier than when they actually have children. We simply don’t have the conditions to have children at a younger age
- argued Mateusz Łakomy in a cited interview with Gazeta.pl. According to GUS data, while the median age of a first-time mother was 23.7 years in 2000, by 2022, it had increased by over five years (28.8 years).
Of course, purely financial factors - income levels, job stability, etc. - aren’t the only ones affecting birth rates. Social and cultural factors, such as a wide range of life paths and decreasing social pressure to start a family, also play a role.
Demographics in Poland
In the first half of 2024, 126,500 children were born in Poland. If the same number are born in the second half, we would see just over 250,000 births for the year.
The number of births in Poland is declining rapidly. In 2023, around 272,000 children were born in Poland, compared to 305,000 in 2022, just over 331,000 in 2021, 355,000 in 2020, and 375,000 in 2019. Firstly, the number of women of reproductive age is declining. There are now fewer than 8.7 million women in Poland. In 2018, there were 9 million, in 2010, 9.5 million, and in 2002, 10 million. However, at the same time, these women are having fewer children on average. The fertility rate (which shows how many children a woman would have in her lifetime if trends from a given year continued) was 1.158 in 2023, the lowest in history. In 2024, it’s likely to drop further.
